Market Intelligence

Bangladesh Issue Monitor June–July 2025: US-Bangladesh TIFA, GSP, LDC Graduation, Minimum Wage

June–July 2025 Issue Overview

June and July 2025 marked a consequential period for Bangladesh's external trade environment. US-Bangladesh trade talks under the TIFA framework resumed, and discussions on restoring GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) benefits gained visible momentum. At the same time, preparations for the EU's post-EBA (Everything But Arms) transition and Bangladesh's scheduled LDC graduation in November 2026 accelerated in parallel.

During this period, the exchange rate fluctuated in the BDT 119–122 per USD range, while foreign exchange reserves stayed near the $20B level. Garment exports remained resilient at 8%+ growth year-on-year. The resumption of US-Bangladesh TIFA talks, GSP restoration negotiations, and follow-up to the minimum wage increase made June–July a period signaling structural changes in Bangladesh's trade environment.

119–122
BDT Exchange Rate
Per USD range
$20B
FX Reserves
July 2025
+8%
Garment Exports
YoY
9.2%
Inflation
As of June
8.5%
Policy Rate
Bangladesh Bank
$1.8B
Trade Deficit
June–July total
$800M
FDI Inflows
H1 cumulative
$4.2B
Exports to US
H1 total

US-Bangladesh Trade Talks Key Agenda

US-Bangladesh TIFA Major Negotiation Agenda
AgendaUS PositionBD PositionCurrent StatusKorea Implication
GSP RestorationConditional on labor rights improvementUnconditional restoration requestedUnder negotiationCompetition easing
Intellectual PropertyStronger IPR enforcementPhased implementationPartial agreementTechnology exports favorable
Labor StandardsILO core convention complianceDomestic law revision underwayIn progressIndirect impact
Digital TradeFree data flowsData sovereigntyEarly-stage discussionIT export opportunity
Agricultural MarketBroader market openingMaintain protectionStalematedFood export opportunity
Tariff ConcessionsSelected item tariff cutsReciprocal concessionsUnder negotiationExport expansion

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Economic Indicators (June vs July)
GDP Growth5.8% (FY25 preliminary)
Inflation9.2% → 8.8%
Exchange Rate121 → 119 BDT/USD
Export Growth+7.5% → +8.2%
Trade Environment Changes
LDC GraduationNovember 2026 confirmed
EU EBA TransitionPreparing GSP+ application
US GSPRestoration talks underway
RCEP AccessionUnder review

Sector-by-Sector Export Trends (June–July)

Bangladesh Major Sector Export Trends: June–July 2025
SectorJune ExportsJuly ExportsYoYKey Markets
Garments (RMG)$3.8B$4.1B+8%EU and US 80%+
Pharmaceuticals$180M$195M+12%Asia and Africa
Jute and Products$90M$85M-3%India and EU
Seafood$75M$80M+5%Southeast Asia and Middle East
IT Services$120M$135M+20%US and Europe
Leather and Footwear$55M$60M+7%Europe

Minimum Wage Increase Follow-Up Impact Analysis

Following the garment sector minimum wage increase to BDT 12,500 (+56.25%) in December 2023, industry restructuring accelerated in June–July. Large factories are expanding automation investment, while smaller factories are undergoing restructuring. Buyer acceptance of FOB price increases has expanded Korean textile machinery export opportunities.

Before Minimum Wage Increase (November 2023)
Garment Minimum WageBDT 8,000/month
Automation InvestmentLow level (labor-intensive)
RMG Factories4,000+ operating
Unit Labor CostLowest vs. competing countries
After Minimum Wage Increase (2024–2025)
Garment Minimum WageBDT 12,500/month (+56%)
Automation InvestmentCutting machines/sewing robots increasing
RMG Factories3,700+ (restructuring underway)
Unit Labor CostApproaching Southeast Asia average

Key Issue Detailed Analysis

01
LDC Graduation Preparation and Tariff Impact
Bangladesh's LDC graduation is confirmed for November 2026, and post-graduation EU EBA (duty-free) benefits will end after a 3-year deferral (until 2029). The EU is conditionally reviewing Bangladesh for GSP+ status, requiring ratification of 27 international conventions. This directly impacts Korean companies' Bangladesh production → EU export model, with tariff increases of 8–12% on $20B+ EU exports scheduled.
02
US GSP Restoration Progress
There has been progress in discussions to restore Bangladesh's US GSP, which was suspended after the 2013 Rana Plaza disaster. The US has presented labor rights improvement and fire safety compliance as conditions, while Bangladesh has responded with 2024 labor law amendments and the establishment of the RMG Sustainability Council. Upon GSP restoration, 5,000+ product lines would be exempt from US tariffs, impacting $7B+ in exports to the US.
03
Foreign Exchange Market Stabilization Measures
Bangladesh Bank (BB) maintained the policy rate at 8.5% and eased margin requirements for import L/C opening for FX market stability. June–July exchange rates were stable in the BDT 119–122/USD range, and IMF bailout ($4.7B, 2023–2026) implementation conditions are being met smoothly. FX reserves of $20B represent 3.5 months of import coverage.
04
Garment Minimum Wage Increase Follow-Up
After the garment minimum wage increase to BDT 12,500 in December 2023 (56.25% increase), follow-up impacts were observed in June–July. Closures of some small factories, accelerated automation investment by large factories, and buyer acceptance of FOB price increases were confirmed. Korean textile machinery and automation equipment export opportunities are expanding.

Issue Impact Transmission Flow

US-Bangladesh Negotiations → Korean Company Impact Flow
US-BD TIFA
Trade talks resume
GSP and Tariffs
Preferential tariff changes
BD Export Environment
Competitiveness shifts
Korean Companies
Investment and export strategy adjustment
Execution
Concrete response measures

June–July 2025 had the resumption of US-Bangladesh trade talks and LDC graduation preparation as core issues. Korean companies should closely monitor trade environment changes and accelerate market pre-emption strategies before LDC graduation.

July Issue Monitor No. 7Review July trade and general sector issues in detail
August Issue Monitor No. 6Review US-Bangladesh trade talks follow-up and August issues
LDC Graduation (November 2026) Impact AnalysisReview detailed analysis of EU EBA $20B+ and US GSP $7B+ tariff expiration
Bangladesh GDP $491.82B AnalysisReview 2025 macroeconomic indicators and growth outlook
IssueMonitorTIFAGSPRestorationLDCGraduationMinimumWage
Bangladesh Issue Monitor June–July 2025: US-Bangladesh TIFA, GSP, LDC Graduation, Minimum Wage | Dhaka Trade Portal