Korea–Bangladesh Cumulative Trade Through November 2022
Cumulative Korea–Bangladesh trade for January–November 2022 reached $1,520M, up 3.8% year on year. With only one month remaining before the year-end close, the foreign exchange crisis continued to suppress trade growth, but November's monthly exports recovered to $85M, and the effects of the IMF rescue package agreement are beginning to emerge gradually. Bangladesh government's $4.7B IMF program — with final board approval expected in January 2023 — is sending a positive signal for market stabilization.
Bangladesh's 2022 foreign exchange crisis was the combined result of a surge in global energy and raw-material prices caused by the Russia–Ukraine war, taka depreciation from dollar strength (approximately 25% depreciation), and a sharp drop in foreign exchange reserves ($45B → $34B, below four months of import cover). This crisis translated into LC opening delays and payment collection risk for Korean companies.
Three-Phase Monthly Trade Trend Analysis for 2022
Synthesizing 11 months of trade data reveals a clear three-phase trajectory: strong growth in the first half (Jan–May), a crisis phase under FX crisis impact (Jun–Aug), and a stabilization phase (Sep–Nov). The notable inflection is that August exports (-12.1%, $72M) hit the year's low before recovery began in September–November.
| Month | Exports | YoY | Cumulative Growth | Key Issue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $95M | +14.5% | +14.5% | Post-COVID rebound continues |
| February | $103M | +10.2% | +12.3% | Lunar New Year effect |
| March | $108M | +15.1% | +13.1% | Ukraine war initial impact |
| April | $92M | +8.2% | +12.0% | Energy price surge concerns |
| May | $83M | +3.5% | +10.5% | BD FX reserve warning begins |
| June | $78M | -2.1% | +8.8% | BD LC restrictions introduced |
| July | $79M | -5.3% | +7.5% | IMF talks officially launched |
| August | $72M | -12.1% | +5.8% | FX crisis peak (year low) |
| September | $82M | -3.5% | +5.1% | IMF first deal expectations |
| October | $78M | -6.2% | +4.3% | Recovery pace moderate |
| November | $85M | +1.8% | +4.2% | First positive turn in 11 months |
Year-to-Date Product Performance In-Depth Analysis
Analyzing the top five export items through November alongside their FX crisis exposure: synthetic resins ($201M) maintained the top position, but the downward trend in H2 from Bangladesh's import LC restrictions is clear. Meanwhile, knitwear and woven garment imports ($350M) were relatively stable due to continued RMG industry production.
| Product | H1 (Jan–May) | H2 (Jun–Nov) | H2 Growth | FX Crisis Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synthetic Resins | $110M | $91M | -17.3% | High (LC restrictions) |
| Steel Sheets | $95M | $73M | -23.2% | High (LC restrictions) |
| Synthetic Fibers | $86M | $63M | -26.7% | High (LC restrictions) |
| Machinery | $38M | $34M | -10.5% | Medium (long-term contracts) |
| Electrical/Electronics | $31M | $28M | -9.7% | Low (essential goods) |
IMF Rescue Program Status and Trade Outlook
Specific Impact of the FX Crisis on Trade
The 2022 Bangladesh foreign exchange crisis had the following specific operational impacts on Korean exporters: restricted LC opening for non-essential items, delayed remittances on existing import payments (up to 3–6 months), and reduced purchasing power of local importers due to taka depreciation-driven import price increases.