Korea-Bangladesh Trade: Cumulative Through July 2023
Cumulative Korea-Bangladesh trade for January–July 2023 reached $985M, only 1.3% below the $998M recorded in the same period of the prior year. Starting from double-digit declines in January–February, the gap narrowed sharply after May's first positive monthly turn, and June–July posted strong rebounds well above the prior year. July exports of $98M approached pre-crisis levels, signaling effective normalization ahead.
The successful completion of the IMF second review in June, which released an additional $689M disbursement, triggered broad LC restriction easing. FX reserves stabilized around $30B, and LC opening by Bangladeshi importers entered near-full normalization for essential goods. Consecutive growth of more than 20% year-on-year in June–July points to a strong second half.
Monthly Export Recovery Trend, January–July
Monthly data show clear recovery acceleration. After contracting 15–21% in January–March under lingering FX crisis effects, exports turned positive for the first time in May, then surged more than 20% year-on-year in June–July. Even accounting for a favorable base effect — June–July 2022 was the crisis trough — the absolute export level of $95–98M itself has returned near the pre-crisis average, confirming the recovery is substantive.
| Month | 2023 | 2022 | YoY | Key Issue | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $75M | $95M | -21.1% | Post-IMF approval; LC not yet normalized | Declining |
| February | $85M | $103M | -17.5% | Partial LC easing begins | Declining |
| March | $86M | $108M | -20.4% | FX crisis impact persists | Declining |
| April | $90M | $92M | -2.2% | IMF 1st review expectations | Recovering |
| May | $92M | $83M | +10.8% | LC margin rate cut effect | Turned positive |
| June | $95M | $78M | +21.8% | IMF 2nd review completed | Accelerating rebound |
| July | $98M | $79M | +24.1% | Industrial LC normalized; strongest rebound | Accelerating rebound |
| Cumulative | $621M | $638M | -2.7% | Real recovery underway | Nearing finish line |
IMF Second Review and Broad LC Easing
The completion of the IMF second program review in June was the pivotal turning point for Bangladesh trade recovery. With the second tranche ($689M) released immediately, Bangladesh Bank announced a sweeping easing of import restrictions. From July, LC opening for industrial goods and raw materials was effectively normalized — the direct cause of the June–July export surge.
Product-Level Recovery: Detailed Analysis
| Product | 2022 Jan–Jul | 2023 Jan–Jul | Change % | Jul YoY | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synthetic Resins | $141M | $138M | -2.1% | +18% | Full recovery imminent |
| Synthetic Fibers | $101M | $106M | +5.0% | +22% | Above-trend growth |
| Steel Plates | $118M | $116M | -1.7% | +15% | Full recovery imminent |
| Machinery | $68M | $56M | -17.6% | +8% | Recovering |
| Electronic Components | $51M | $45M | -11.8% | +12% | Recovery accelerating |
| Chemical Products | $48M | $40M | -16.7% | +5% | Awaiting easing benefit |
| Auto Parts | $30M | $32M | +6.7% | +10% | Stable growth |
| Other | $81M | $86M | +6.2% | +28% | Broad rebound |
| Total | $638M | $619M | -3.0% | +24% | Approaching positive territory |
Second-Half Trade Forecast and Full-Year Closing Estimate
Sector-Level H2 Action Plan
| Sector | Current Status | H2 Strategy | Export Target | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synthetic Resins | July +18%; LC fully normalized | Volume expansion; pre-secure long-term contracts | +$20M | 1st |
| Synthetic Fibers | July +22%; linked to RMG boom | RMG peak season intensive marketing | +$15M | 1st |
| Steel Plates | July +15%; infrastructure demand recovering | Expand MDB project linkage | +$12M | 2nd |
| Machinery | Cumulative -18%; recovering | H2 LC easing beneficiary products | +$10M | 2nd |
| Electronic Components | July +12%; accelerating | Secure year-end orders | +$8M | 2nd |
| Auto Parts | Cumulative +6.7%; stable | Strengthen existing buyer relationships | +$5M | 3rd |