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Economic Information Time Series: March 2023-January 2024

Overview of the Economic Information Time Series

This article provides an integrated review of monthly time-series data covering Bangladesh's key economic indicators over the 11 months from March 2023 to January 2024. By tracking changes in GDP growth, inflation, exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, and trade trends, it evaluates the trading environment and market outlook relevant to Korean businesses.

5.8%
GDP Growth
FY2023 estimate
9.5%
CPI Inflation
period average
108→110
Exchange Rate (Tk/$)
managed depreciation
$26-30B
FX Reserves
stabilization range

GDP Growth Trend

Bangladesh's GDP growth slowed to 5.8% in FY2023 (July 2022 to June 2023) under the impact of the foreign exchange crisis. This marked a clear decline from 7.1% in FY2022, but growth is expected to rebound to around 6.5% in FY2024 on the back of IMF program implementation and an export recovery.

Monthly Trend in Key Economic Indicators (March 2023-January 2024)
MonthCPI (%)Exchange Rate (Tk/$)FX Reserves ($B)Import LCs ($B)
2023.39.33107.5$31.2$3.8
2023.59.94108.0$29.8$4.2
2023.79.69109.0$28.5$4.5
2023.99.63109.5$27.2$4.8
2023.119.49110.0$26.8$5.1
2024.19.86110.0$26.5$5.3

Inflation Analysis

Throughout the monitoring period, inflation remained elevated in the 9-10% range. The main driver was the reduction of energy subsidies under IMF conditions, while higher food prices significantly weakened the purchasing power of lower-income households.

01
Energy Price Adjustments
Electricity tariffs were raised three times for a cumulative 42%, and gas tariffs twice for a cumulative 35%. Higher industrial energy costs have weighed on manufacturing competitiveness.
02
Food Inflation
Prices of essential items such as rice, edible oil, and onions rose by 15-20%. Weaker consumption among lower-income groups has reduced import demand for consumer goods.
03
Trade Impact
Lower real purchasing power has dampened the consumer goods market, while industrial and capital goods have been comparatively less affected.

Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rate Trend

FX Reserves
Start of Period$31.2B (2023.3)
End of Period$26.5B (2024.1)
Low Point$25.8B (2023.10)
TrendStabilizing with IMF support
Exchange Rate Trend
Start of PeriodTk.107.5/$
End of PeriodTk.110.0/$
Depreciation2.3%
PolicyGreater flexibility requested by IMF

Overall Assessment of the Trade Environment

H1 2023
IMF effects emerged, LC easing began
H2 2023
Trade recovery with inflation persistence
Late 2023
Election uncertainty alongside macro stabilization
2024 Outlook
Growth rebound to 6.5%, trade expansion
EPA/CEPA Policy OverviewReview changes in trade policy and the status of CEPA discussions.
K-stat Trade Statistics AnalysisAnalyze how actual trade data aligns with these economic indicators.
economic informationtime seriesGDPexchange rateforeign exchange reserves
Economic Information Time Series: March 2023-January 2024 | Dhaka Trade Portal