Research

September 2024 Embassy Economic Seminar: Bangladesh's Second-Half Economic Trends

Overview of the September 2024 Economic Seminar

The Embassy of the Republic of Korea in Bangladesh holds quarterly economic seminars for Korean businesspeople, and the September 2024 seminar carried special significance as the first session held after the political upheaval of July and August, including Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation and the launch of the interim government. Discussions focused on the economic effects of political change, trends in exchange rates, inflation, and foreign exchange reserves, as well as the impact on Korean companies and possible response strategies.

In the second half of 2024, Bangladesh's economy showed resilience by maintaining GDP growth of 5.5% to 6.0% despite political uncertainty. At the same time, falling foreign exchange reserves, which slipped below USD 20 billion, depreciation of the taka to around BDT 117 per dollar, and restrictions on opening import letters of credit had a direct impact on Korean companies operating locally. The embassy emphasized the need to preserve communication channels with the interim government and strengthen corporate support in coordination with KOTRA Dhaka.

5.5-6.0%
GDP Growth
FY2024 outlook
$19.5B
FX Reserves
As of Sep 2024
BDT 117/$1
Exchange Rate
Unofficial 120+
$55B
Exports
FY2024 target
9.9%
Inflation
Food 12%+
$23B
Remittances
FY2024 outlook
120+
Korean Firms
Present in market
Interim govt.
Political Status
Launched Aug 2024

Political Changes and Their Economic Impact

Bangladesh's political upheaval in July and August 2024 delivered a short-term shock to the broader economy. Student protests in July calling for quota reform escalated into nationwide disruption, leading to internet shutdowns, curfews, and factory stoppages for two to three weeks. After Prime Minister Hasina resigned on August 5, an interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus took office. The ready-made garment sector saw exports fall 15% to 20% year on year in July and August, but signs of recovery began to appear in September. Korean firms located in export processing zones were relatively less affected, while offices and distribution businesses in Dhaka experienced more direct disruption.

Key Economic Indicators in the Second Half of 2024
Indicator2024.62024.72024.82024.9YoYNote
GDP Growth (Quarterly)5.8%5.5%6.0%Revised downward
FX Reserves ($B)21.220.519.819.525.0Continuing decline
Exchange Rate (BDT/$)110112115117109Depreciation trend
RMG Exports ($B/month)4.23.53.24.04.1Decline in Jul-Aug
Inflation (%)9.710.210.59.99.4Near 10%
Remittances ($B/month)1.81.61.92.11.7Recovered in Sep
FDI ($M/month)250180150200300Investment slowdown

Local Issues Facing Korean Companies and Response Measures

Issues Facing Korean Companies
LC OpeningsRestrictions on import LCs disrupted raw material procurement
FX ConversionDelays in converting taka into dollars stretched remittances to 3-6 months
Workforce ManagementEmployees could not commute during protests, causing production disruption
SafetyTravel within Dhaka was limited, prompting a shift to remote work
Embassy and KOTRA Support
Safety NoticesReal-time updates via KakaoTalk group channels
Business MeetingsMonthly sessions to share and address local issues
Interim Govt. OutreachRequests for investment protection and continuity through BOI channels
Emergency EvacuationContingency plans and flight availability secured

The issue discussed most frequently at the September seminar was the restriction on opening import letters of credit and the delays in foreign exchange conversion. Bangladesh Bank, in an effort to defend reserves, limited non-essential import LCs and prioritized dollar allocation for energy and food imports. As a result, Korean companies reported delays in importing raw materials and equipment, while profit remittances to headquarters in Korea were in some cases delayed by three to six months. Through meetings with deputy governors at Bangladesh Bank, the embassy requested priority treatment for Korean firms seeking LC approvals, and separate foreign exchange allocations were secured for companies located in EPZs. KOTRA Dhaka also circulated updates on LC issuance conditions by local bank and alternative payment methods such as escrow and sight L/C.

Second-Half Outlook and Corporate Strategy

01
Political Stabilization Outlook
The interim government is pursuing reforms with the aim of holding elections in late 2025 or 2026. Key tasks include reconstituting the election commission, strengthening the anti-corruption commission, and improving judicial independence. The United States, EU, and Japan have shown support for the interim government, while the ADB, World Bank, and IMF continue aid and lending programs. If stabilization proceeds, foreign direct investment is expected to recover from the first half of 2025.
02
Foreign Exchange and Exchange Rate Outlook
Foreign reserves are expected to bottom out in the USD 18-20 billion range and begin recovering in 2025 with inflows from the IMF EFF program valued at USD 4.7 billion. The exchange rate is likely to stabilize around BDT 118-120 per dollar, although a 5-8% gap with the informal market may persist. Introduction of a crawling peg by the central bank is expected to reduce volatility. Korean firms were advised to consider currency hedging through NDF instruments.
03
Response Strategy for Korean Companies
The embassy recommended a three-track response. First, in the short term, firms should secure liquidity, use LC alternatives such as telegraphic transfer or escrow, and expand inventories. Second, in the medium term, they should raise local sourcing ratios and diversify beyond Dhaka into EPZs such as Chattogram and Mongla. Third, in the long term, they should prepare for expanded investment after political normalization, review participation in PPP projects, and make use of incentives from BIDA. The core message was to treat the crisis as a strategic opening rather than only a constraint.
04
Sector-Specific Opportunities and Risks
In RMG and textiles, global brand orders remain intact and China+1 demand is creating opportunities for suppliers of materials and inputs. In power and energy, LNG and renewable projects continue, supported by long-term contracts. In infrastructure, ADB-backed metro rail and highway projects are moving forward regardless of politics. In ICT and fintech, demand for digital transformation is rising alongside a growing startup ecosystem. In agri-food, food security priorities are expanding agricultural investment, creating openings for Korean machinery and seed companies.
Crisis Response Steps for Korean Companies
Secure Safety
Protect personnel and assets
Manage Liquidity
Prepare LC and FX alternatives
Normalize Operations
Restore the supply chain
Explore Opportunities
Assess PPPs and new investment
Scale Up Investment
Move decisively after elections
ADB Investment Policy Roadmap for BangladeshReview the ADB CPS strategy and sector-level investment directions
Comprehensive Analysis of Bangladesh Infrastructure ProjectsSee how ADB-backed infrastructure programs continue despite political change

The September 2024 embassy economic seminar provided a comprehensive discussion of how Korean companies should respond on the ground amid political disruption. Short-term risks remain, including lower reserves, LC restrictions, and delayed remittances, but Bangladesh's structural growth drivers, including a population of 170 million, an expanding middle class, and ongoing digital transformation, remain intact. With the interim government pursuing reforms and continued support from international partners, economic normalization is expected to begin in 2025. Companies that use this period to strengthen local networks and business foundations are likely to be in the strongest position once the environment stabilizes.

EmbassyEconomic Seminar2024SeptemberEconomic Trends
September 2024 Embassy Economic Seminar: Bangladesh's Second-Half Economic Trends | Dhaka Trade Portal